NCAAF record.
Every finished game where the model had both a projection and a line. Graded against the first line the model ever saw for that game — not a number found later, and never re-priced as the market moved.
ALL PICKS
59-53-2
52.7% · 37-35 on 3+ edges
EDGE 3+
37-35
51.4% · -1.4 units
EDGE 6+
20-17
54.1% · +1.2 units
EDGE 10+
5-5
50.0% · -0.5 units
2026-10-04Arkansas State at Louisiana
PickLouisiana -6.5
Edge2.4
Projected22.4-31.3
Final20–23
LOSS
2026-10-04Cincinnati at Arizona
PickArizona -7
Edge3.6
Projected25.2-35.8
Final7–34
WIN